How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The following day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, Trump promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.