A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
