Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
